1. Douglas, P.M.J., Pagani, M., Canuto, M.A., Brenner, M., Hodell, D.A., Eglinton, T.I., Curtis, J.H (2015) Drought, agricultural adaptation, and sociopolitical collapse in the Maya Lowlands, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112, 5607–5612.

  2. Krishnan, S., Pagani, M., Agnini, C. (2015) Leaf waxes as recorders of paleoclimatic changes during the Paleocene– Eocene Thermal Maximum: Regional expressions from the Belluno Basin, Organic Geochemistry, 80, 8–17.

  3. Zhuang, G., Pagani, M., Chamberlin, C., Strong, D., Vandergoes, M. (2015) Altitudinal shift in stable hydrogen isotopes and microbial tetraether distribution in soils from the Southern Alps, NZ: Implications for paleoclimatology and paleoaltimetry, Organic Geochemistry, 79, 56–64.

  4. Inglis, G.N., Farnsworth, A., Lunt, D., Foster, G.L., Hollis, C.J., Pagani, M., Jardine, P.E., Pearson, P.N., Markwick, P., Galsworthy, A.M.J., Raynham, L., Taylor, K.W.R., Pancost, R.D. (2015) Descent toward the Icehouse: Eocene sea surface cooling inferred from GDGT distributions, Paleoceanography, 10.1002/2014PA002723.

  1. Douglas, P.M.J., Pagani, M., Eglinton, T.I., Brenner, M., Hodell, D.A., Curtis, J.H., Ma, K.F., Breckenridge, A. (2014) Pre-aged plant waxes in tropical lake sediments and their influence on the chronology of molecular paleoclimate proxy records, Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 14, 346–364.[PDF]

  2. Boscolo Galazzo, F., Thomas, E., Pagani, M., Warren, C., Luciani, V., and Giusberti, L. (2014) The middle Eocene climatic optimum (MECO): A multiproxy record of paleoceanographic changes in the southeast Atlantic (ODP Site 1263, Walvis Ridge), Paleoceanography, 10.1002/2014PA002670.[PDF]

  3. Krishnan, S., Pagani, M., Huber, M., Sluijs, A. (2014) High latitude hydrological changes during the Eocene Thermal Maximum 2, Earth and Planetary Sciences Letters, 404, 167-177.[PDF]

  4. Douglas, P.M.J., Affek, H.P., Ivany, L.C., Houben, A.J.P., Sijp, W.P., Sluijs, A., Schouten, S., and Pagani, M. (2014) Pronounced zonal heterogeneity in Eocene southern high-latitude sea surface temperatures, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi/10.1073/pnas.1321441111.[PDF]

  5. Zhang, Y.G., Pagani, M., Liu, Z. (2014) A 12-million-year temperature history of the tropical Pacific Ocean, Science, 344, 84-87.[PDF]

  6. Zhuang, G., Brandon, M., Pagani, M., Krishnan, S. (2014) Leaf wax stable isotopes from Northern Tibetan Plateau: implications for uplift and climate since 15 Ma, Earth and Planetary Science Letters390, 186–198).[PDF]

  7. Pagani, M., Huber, B. Sageman, (2014) Greenhouse Climates, In Treatise on Geochemistry (Second Edition), edited by H.D. Holland and K.K. Turekian, Elsevier, Oxford, Pages 281-304,[PDF]

  8. Pagani, M. (2014) Biomarker-Based Inferences of Past Climate: The Alkenone pCO2 Proxy, In Treatise on Geochemistry (Second Edition), edited by Heinrich D. Holland and Karl K. Turekian, Elsevier, Oxford, Pages 361-378,[PDF]

  1. Dirghangi, S.S., and Pagani, M. (2013) Hydrogen isotope fractionation during lipid biosynthesis by Tetrahymena thermophile, Organic Geochemistry, 105–111. [PDF]

  2. Zhang YG, Pagani M, Liu Z, Bohaty SM, DeConto R. (2013) A 40-million-year history of atmospheric CO2Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 371, 20130096. [PDF]

  3. Dirghangi, S.S., Pagani, M., Hren, M.T., Tipple, B.J. (2013) Distribution of glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers in soils from two environmental transects in the USA, Organic Geochemistry, 59, 49–60.[PDF]

  4. Dirghangi, S.S., Pagani, M. (2013) Hydrogen isotope fractionation during lipid biosynthesis by Haloarcula marismortuiGeochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 119, 381–390.[PDF]

  5. Schouten, S. et al. (2013), An interlaboratory study of TEX86 and BIT analysis of sediments, extracts, and standard mixtures, Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 14, doi:10.1002/2013GC004904.[PDF]

  6. Wolfe, A.P., Hobbs, W.O., Birks, H.H., Briner, J.P., Holmgren, S.U., Ingólfsson, Ó., Kaushal, S.S., Miller, G.H., Pagani, M., Saros, J.E., Vinebrooke, R.D. (2013) Stratigraphic expressions of the Holocene–Anthropocene transition revealed in sediments from remote lakes, Earth-Science Reviews, 116, 17–34. [PDF]

  7. Tipple, B.J. and Pagani, M. (2013) Environmental control on eastern broadleaf forest species’ leaf wax distributions and D/H ratios, Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 111, 64–77. [PDF]

  1. Rohling, E.J., Sluijs, A., Dijkstra, H.A., Köhler, P., van de Wal, R.S.W., von der Heydt, A.S., Beerling, D.J., Berger, A., Bijl, P.K., Crucifix, M., DeConto, R., Drijfhout, S.S., Fedorov, A., Foster, G.L., Ganopolski, A., Hansen, J., Hönisch, B., Hooghiemstra, H., Huber, M., Huybers, P., Knutti, R., Lea, D.W., Lourens, L.J., Lunt, D., Masson-Demotte, V., Medina-Elizalde, M., Otto-Bliesner, B., Pagani, M., Pälike, H., Renssen, H., Royer, D.L., Siddall, M., Valdes, P., Zachos, J.C. and Zeebe, R.E. (2012) Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity, Nature, 491, 683-691. [PDF]

  2. Douglas, P.M.J., Pagani, M., Brenner, M., Hodell, D.A., Curtis, J.H (2012) Aridity and vegetation composition are important determinants of leaf-wax dD values in southeastern Mexico and Central America, Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 97, 24–45. [PDF]

  3. DeConto, R.M., Galeotti, S., Pagani, M., Tracy, D., Schaefer, K., Zhang, T., Pollard, D., Beerling, D.J. (2012) Past extreme warming events linked to massive carbon release from thawing permafrost, Nature, 484, 87–91. [PDF]

  4. McKay, R., Naish, T., Carter, L., Riesselman, C., Dunbar, R., Sjunneskog, C., Winter, D., Sangiorgi, F., Warren. C., Pagani., M., Schouten, S., Willmott, V., Levy, R., DeConto, R., Powell., R.D. (2012) Antarctic and Southern Ocean influences on Late Pliocene global cooling, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109, 64236428. [PDF]

  5. Royer, D.L., Pagani, M., Beerling, D.J. (2012) Geologic constraints on Earth system sensitivity to CO2, Geobiology, DOI: 10.1111/j.1472-4669.2012.00320.x. [PDF]

  6. Beerling, D.J., Taylor, L.L., Bradshaw, C.D.C., Lunt, D.J., Valdes, P.J., Banwart, S.A., Pagani, M., Leake, J.R., (2012) Ecosystem CO2 starvation and terrestrial silicate weathering: mechanisms and global-scale quantification during the late Miocene, Journal of Ecology, 100, 31–41. [PDF]

  1. Pagani, M., Huber, M., Liu, Z., Bohaty,, S.M., Henderiks, J., Sijp, W., Krishnan, S., DeConto, R.M. (2011) The role of carbon dioxide during the onset of Antarctic glaciation, Science, 334, 1261-1264. [PDF]

  2. Tipple, B.J., Pagani, M., Krishnan, S., Dirghangi, S.S., Agnini, C., Galeotti, S., Giusberti, L., Rio, D., (2011) Coupled high-resolution marine and terrestrial records of carbon and hydrologic cycles variations during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), Earth and Planetary Science Letters, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2011.08.045. [PDF]

  3. Yang, H., Liu, W., Leng, Q., Hren, M.T., Pagani, M. (2011) Variation of n-alkane dD values from terrestrial plants at high latitudes: Implications for paleoclimate reconstruction, Organic Geochemistry, 42, 283–288. [PDF]

  1. Jaramillo, C., Ochoa, D., Contreras, L., Pagani, M. Carvajal-Ortiz, H., Pratt, L.M., Krishnan, S. et al. (2010) Effects of rapid global warming at the Paleocene-Eocene Boundary on neotropical vegetation, Science, 330, 957-962.[PDF]

  2. Tipple, B.J., Pagani, M. (2010) A 35 Myr terrestrial higher plant n-alkane stable carbon and hydrogen isotope record from the Gulf of Mexico: implications for North American C4 grasslands and hydrologic cycle dynamics, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 299 (2010) 250–262.[PDF]
  3. Tipple, B.J., Meyers, S.R., Pagani, M. (2010) The carbon isotope ratio of Cenozoic CO2: a comparative evaluation of available geochemical proxies, Paleoceanography, doi:10.1029/2009PA001851.[PDF]

  4. Hren, M. T., Pagani, M., Erwin, D. M., Brandon, M. (2010) Early Eocene paleoelevation and paleoclimate of the Sierra Nevada, Geology, 38, 7-10.[PDF]
  5. Galeotti, S., Krishnan, S., Pagani, M., Lanci, L., Gaudio, A., Zachos J. C., Monechi, S., Morelli, G., Lourens, L. (2010) Orbital chronology of Early Eocene hyperthermals from the Contessa Road section, central Italy, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 290, 192-200.[PDF]

  6. Pagani, M., Liu , Z., LaRiviera, J., Ravelo, A. C. (2009) High climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide for the past 5 million years, Nature Geoscience, 3, 27-30.[PDF]

  1. Pagani, M., Caldeira, K., Berner, R., Beerling, D. (2009) The role of terrestrial plants in limiting CO2 decline for 24 million years, Nature, 460, 85-88.[PDF]

  2. Yang, H., Pagani, M., Briggs, D. E. G., Equiza, M.A., Jagels, R., Leng, Q., LePage. B. A. (2009) Carbon and hydrogen isotope fractionation under continuous light: implications for paleoenvironmental interpretations of the High Arctic during Paleogene warming, Oecologia, DOI 10.1007/s00442-009-1321-1.[PDF]

  3. Liu, Z., Pagani, M., Zinniker, D., DeConto, R., Huber, M., Brinkhuis, H., Shah, S., Leckie, M., and Pearson, A. (2009) Global cooling during the Eocene-Oligocene climate transition, Science, 323, 1187-1190.[PDF]

  1. Hansen, J., Sato, M., Kharecha, P., Beerling, D., Berner, R., Masson-Delmotte, V., Pagani, M., Raymo, M., Royer, D., Zachos. J.C. (2008) Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2, 217-231.[PDF]

  2. DeConto, R. M., Pollard, D., Wilson, P.A., Pälike, H., Lear, C. H., Pagani, M. (2008) Thresholds for Cenozoic bipolar glaciation, Nature, 455, 652-656.[PDF]

  3. Meyers, S. R., Sageman B. B., and Pagani, M. (2008) Resolving Milankovitch: consideration of signal and noise, American Journal of Science, 308, 770–786, DOI 10.2475/06.2008.02.[PDF]

  4. Enders. S. K., Pagani, M., Pantoja, S., Baron, J. S., Wolfe, A. P., Pedentchouk, N., Nunez, L. (2008) Compound-specific stable isotopes of organic compounds from lake sediments track recent environmental changes in an alpine ecosystem, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado (United States of America), Limnology and Oceanography, 53, 1468-1478.[PDF]

  5. Henderiks, J. and Pagani, M. (2008) Coccolithophore cell size and the Paleogene decline in atmospheric CO2, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 269, 575-583.[PDF]

  6. Pedentchouk, N., Sumner, W., Tipple, B., Pagani, M. (2008) d13C and dD composition of n-alkanes from 3 modern angiosperms and conifers: An experimental 4 set up in central Washington State, USA, Organic Geochemistry, 39, 1066–1071.[PDF]

  1. Henderiks, J. and Pagani, M. (2007) Refining ancient carbon dioxide estimates: Significance of coccolithophore cell size for alkenone-based pCO2 records, Paleoceanography, 22, doi:10.1029/2006PA001399.[PDF]

  2. Tipple, B. J. and Pagani, M. (2007) The early origins of terrestrial C4 photosynthesis, Annual Reviews of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 35, 435-461.[PDF]
  1. Pagani, M., Caldeira, K., Archer, D., and Zachos, J.C. (2006) An ancient carbon mystery, Science. 314, 1556-1557.[PDF]

  2. Pagani, M., Pedentchouk, N., Huber, M., Sluijs, A., Schouten, S., Brinkhuis, H., Sinninghe Damsté, J. S., Dickens, G.R., and the IODP Expedition 302 Scientists (2006) Arctic hydrology during global warming at the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum, Nature, 442, 671-675.[PDF]

  3. Sluijs, A., Schouten, S., Pagani, M., Woltering, M., Pedentchouk, N., Brinkhuis, H., Sinninghe Damsté, J.S., Dickens, G.R., Huber, M., Reichart, G. J., Stein, R., Matthiessen, J., Lourens, L.J., Backman, J., Moran, K., and the Expedition 302 Scientists (2006) Subtropical Arctic Ocean temperatures during the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum, Nature, 441, 610-613.[PDF]

  4. Meyers, S. R. and Pagani, M. (2006) Quasi-periodic climate teleconnections between northern and southern Europe during the 17th-20th centuries, Global and Planetary Change, 54, 291-301.[PDF]

  5. Pancost, R. D. and Pagani, M. (2006) Controls on the Carbon Isotopic Compositions of Lipids in Marine Environments, In: The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry, Volume 2 Series: Marine Organic Matter: Biomarkers, Isotopes and DNA (J. Volkman, ed.), Springer, Germany, pp 209-249 (invited submission).[PDF]

2005 and earlier
  1. Buck, D.G., Brenner, M., Hodell, D.A., Curtis, J.H., Martin, J.B., and Pagani, M. (2005) Physical and chemical properties of hypersaline Lago Enriquillo, Dominican Republic. Verh. Internat. Verein. Limnol. 29, 725-731.
  2. Pagani, M., Zachos, J., Freeman, K. H., Bohaty, S., and Tipple, B. (2005) Marked decline in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations during the Paleogene, Science. 309, 600-603.
  3. Freeman, K.H., and Pagani, M. (2005) Alkenone-based estimates of past CO2 levels: a consideration of their utility based on an analysis of uncertainties, in A History of Atmospheric CO2 and its Effects on Plants, Animals, and Ecosystems, J. R. Ehleringer, T. E. Cerling, and M. D. Dearing (Eds), Ecological Studies, 177, Springer, New York, p.530.
  4. Pagani, M., Lemarchand, D., Spivack, A., and Gaillarde, J. (2005) A critical evaluation of the boron isotope-pH proxy: The accuracy of ancient ocean pH estimates, Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 69, 953-961.
  5. Pagani, M., Freeman, K.H., Ohkouchi, K., and Caldeira, K. (2002) Comparison of water column [CO2aq] with sedimentary alkenone-based estimates: a test of the alkenone-CO2 proxy, Paleoceanography, 17, 1069, doi:10.1029/2002PA000756.
  6. Ennyu, A., Arthur, M.A., Pagani, M. (2002) Fine-fraction carbonate stable isotopes as indicators of seasonal shallow mixed-layer paleohydrography Marine Micropaleontology, 46, 317-342.
  7. Pagani, M., The alkenone-CO2 proxy and ancient atmospheric CO2 (2002) In Understanding Climate Change: Proxies, Chronology, and Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions, Eds. D.R. Gröcke and M. Kucera, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series A, 360, pp. 575-802.
  8. Zachos J., Pagani, M., Sloan, L., Thomas, and E., Billups, K. (2001) Trends, rhythms, and aberrations in global climate: 65 Ma to present, Science, 292, 686-693.
  9. Prahl, F., Herbert, T., Brassell, S.C., Ohkouchi, N., Pagani, M., Repeta D., Rosell-Melé, A., and Sikes, E. (2000) Status of alkenone paleothermometer calibration: Report from Working Group 3, Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 1.
  10. Pagani, M., Arthur, M.A., and Freeman, K.H. (2000) Variations in Miocene phytoplankton growth rates in the southwest Atlantic: Evidence for Changes in Ocean Circulation, Paleoceanography, 15, 486-496.
  11. Pagani, M., Freeman, K.H., and Arthur, M.A., (2000), Isotope analyses of molecular and total organic carbon from Miocene sediments, Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 64, 37-49.
  12. Pagani, M., Freeman, K.H., and Arthur, M.A. (1999) Late Miocene atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the expansion of C4 grasses, Science, 285, 876-879.
  13. Pagani, M., Arthur, M.A., and Freeman, K.H. (1999) Miocene evolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide, Paleoceanography, 14, 273-292
  14. Pagani, M. and Arthur, M.A., (1998) Stable isotopic studies of Cenomanian-Turonian proximal marine fauna from the U.S. Western Interior Seaway. In Dean, W.E., and Arthur, M.A. (Eds), Stratigraphy and Paleoenvironments of the Western Interior Seaway, SEPM Concepts in Sedimentology and Paleontology No. 6.